SrasV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 003944

On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Identifieur interne : 003944 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003943; suivant : 003945

On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Auteurs : Sze-Bi Hsu [Taïwan] ; Ying-Hen Hsieh [Taïwan]

Source :

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2008-01-01.

RBID : ISTEX:9348B04AD63374C69FECF45BD1860BE183069E50

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (virologie), Humains, Modèles biologiques, Simulation numérique, Sous-type H5N1 du virus de la grippe A (croissance et développement).
MESH :
- croissance et développement : Sous-type H5N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- virologie : Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Simulation numérique.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Asymptomatic infection, Basic reproduction number, Bistability, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Influenza, Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype (growth & development), Influenza, Human (transmission), Influenza, Human (virology), Models, Biological, Threshold asymptomatic fraction.
MESH :
- growth & development : Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Biological.

Abstract

Abstract: We propose a compartmental disease transmission model with an asymptomatic (or subclinical) infective class to study the role of asymptomatic infection in the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infectives, e.g., influenza. Analytical results are obtained using the respective ratios of susceptible, exposed (incubating), and asymptomatic classes to the clinical symptomatic infective class. Conditions are given for bistability of equilibria to occur, where trajectories with distinct initial values could result in either a major outbreak where the disease spreads to the whole population or a lesser outbreak where some members of the population remain uninfected. This dynamic behavior did not arise in a SARS model without asymptomatic infective class studied by Hsu and Hsieh (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66(2), 627–647, 2006). Hence, this illustrates that depending on the initial states, control of a disease outbreak with asymptomatic infections may involve more than simply reducing the reproduction number. Moreover, the presence of asymptomatic infections could result in either a positive or negative impact on the outbreak, depending on different sets of conditions on the parameters, as illustrated with numerical simulations. Biological interpretations of the analytical and numerical results are also given.

Url:

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9245-6

Affiliations:

Taïwan

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: We propose a compartmental disease transmission model with an asymptomatic (or subclinical) infective class to study the role of asymptomatic infection in the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infectives, e.g., influenza. Analytical results are obtained using the respective ratios of susceptible, exposed (incubating), and asymptomatic classes to the clinical symptomatic infective class. Conditions are given for bistability of equilibria to occur, where trajectories with distinct initial values could result in either a major outbreak where the disease spreads to the whole population or a lesser outbreak where some members of the population remain uninfected. This dynamic behavior did not arise in a SARS model without asymptomatic infective class studied by Hsu and Hsieh (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66(2), 627–647, 2006). Hence, this illustrates that depending on the initial states, control of a disease outbreak with asymptomatic infections may involve more than simply reducing the reproduction number. Moreover, the presence of asymptomatic infections could result in either a positive or negative impact on the outbreak, depending on different sets of conditions on the parameters, as illustrated with numerical simulations. Biological interpretations of the analytical and numerical results are also given.</div>
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On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

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Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

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